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Trade Like a Hedge Fund, by James Altucher

November 28th, 2008

Page 113 – The Bond Allocation Trade

Savvy investors pay attention to the bond market.  Bond market investors are, on average, more aware of company issues, economic issues, and the macroeconomic picture than are is the average equity investor.  Bond market investors do a lot of the analytical heavy lifting for equity investors, so it is important for equity investors to heed the signs of the bond market.  This trade profits when investors panic and buy up 10 year treasuries at the expense of investing in the stock market.

  1. Buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average when the 10 year yield is 50 basis points lower than it was one month prior and when the Dow is down 2 percent in the past week.
  2. Sell one month later.

His results employing this system from 1990 to 2002 were a 100 percent success with a 7.12 percent average return per trade.  Unfortunately, the criteria were only met 11 times during those 12 years.  If we lower the threshold to a 25 basis point yield during the same time period, the system was successful 75 percent of the time for an average monthly return of about 0.7 percent.

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