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Trade Like a Hedge Fund, by James Altucher

November 28th, 2008

Page 170 – Five Minute Bollinger Band System

Another simple trading strategy.  This one uses the popular Bollinger Bands using a 2 standard deviation input.  Bollinger Bands identify oversold and overbought conditions.

  1. Buy when the stock falls 3 percent below its lower band.  Hold until at 10 minutes.
  2. Sell when the stock hits a 1 percent profit target or after 10 minutes, which ever comes first.

Example:
On April 3, 2000, MSFT gapped down 3 percent below its lower Bollinger Band at the open.  The system bought at the open and was sold immediately when it crossed its 1% threshold profit.

The key here is to take the profit or minimize the loss quickly.  Because the stock will either bounce back quickly (more often than not) or just flounder about.  This system obviously needs to be automated on many different securities since the 1% is very small.  When tested from February 2002 through June 2003 on the ten most heavily traded NASDAQ stocks (DELL, CSCO, MSFT, SUNW, etc), the system produced an average 2.77 percent gain per trade and a 92 percent success rate.

This system allows you to profit from panic.  Almost every time the market panics, in the short term, the market has been worth buying.  Even for justifiable panics.

  1. John F. Kennedy Assasination.  Day 1: -3% loss.  One month later: 7.6% gain
  2. Start of Korean War.  Day 1: -4.6% loss.  Two months later: -3% loss.
  3. Cuban Missile Crisis.  Day 1: -1.9% loss.  Two months later: +12 percent.
  4. September 11, 2001.  Day 1: -5.2% loss.  Two months later: +4 percent gain.
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