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The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros

January 14th, 2009

Page 6 – The Human Uncertainty Principle

The Human Uncertainty Principle is something Soros holds out as similar to Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle.  Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle holds that the position and momentum of quantum particles cannot be measured at the same time because measurement instruments and processes disrupt the particles.  This is an important concept to Soros and is often referenced side by side with his Theory of Reflexivity.  His Human Uncertainty Principle is as follows:

The principle holds that people’s understanding of the world in which they live cannot correspond to the facts and be complete and coherent at the same time.  Insofar as people’s thinking is confined to the facts, it is not sufficient to reach decisions; and insofar as it serves as the basis of the decisions, it cannot be confined to the facts.  The human uncertainty principle applies to both thinking and reality.

Page 25 – All Investment Theses are Flawed

Soros operates under the assumption that all investment theses are flawed.  Then he tries to discover how investment theses are flawed so that that he is ahead of the game once the market discovers what he already knows.  In this way, he can better capitalize on the flaws, and limit losses when perceptions change.

This is another example of how his approach is contradictory to the efficient market hypothesis and the theory of rational expectations.  These two concepts in traditional economics claim the markets are always right.  Soros claims the markets are always wrong, but that they often temporarily validate themselves.


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